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【笔记】《技术分析之艺术与科学 · 5.5》  

2014-01-05 07:13:34|  分类: 汇市博弈 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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【摘】《技术分析之艺术与科学 · 5.5》 - 汇士4xAce - 残夢天涯
文源:《The Art & Science of Technical Analysis: Market Structure, Price Action & Trading Strategies》
作者: Adam Grimes



On Technical Analysis of Financial Trading [5.5]

123>>>If there is one message ... it is this: trading is hard—very hard. It will challenge you in ways that you cannot imagine, and it will take much longer than you expect to reach a level of competence. Your success will be incremental and ephemeral at first. Expect an emotional roller coaster where progress is followed by errors and failures that erase most of that progress in the next period. Remember that most people who try to trade will fail, or trading will remain a marginal hobby that has no real financial impact on their net worth. If you are determined to make it something more, you have a long, hard journey ahead, and you must be prepared.

124>>>Trading differs from those careers, doctors, lawyers, or engineers, in that the path to mastery is not as clearly laid out, and there are no prizes for second best. In many professions, people can develop the skills to become competent but not exceptional and can make a good living. In trading, especially for the individual trader, only the superstars make substantial profits over a long period of time.

125>>>It is difficult to imagine a trader becoming a true veteran without living through a complete bull/bear market cycle—about a decade in most cases. This trader has finally seen it all and has also become cognizant of the unknown and unknowable risks that accompany all market activity.

126>>>At the institutional level, traders who can consistently make a 25 percent return on capital each year are very rare; these are the rock stars in the industry. Many competent traders are able to, at best, beat their benchmarks by a few percentage points; if you can do so by even a few basis points consistently, you can have a very successful career as a money manager.

127>>>Analytical software: If you intend to perform deeper analysis of market tendencies and create your own statistical studies, you will need to move beyond Excel at some point. Excel is capable of doing some fairly in-depth analyses, but it is not the right tool for this job. Some versions of Excel have small but persistent calculation errors that can cause serious errors in trading applications, and Excel’s management of large data sets is cumbersome at best. Though it is a major commitment of both time and money, learning to use a software package like SPSS, SAS, Stata, or R is the only alternative for traders wanting to do their own deep-dive data analysis.

128>>>The core skills of competent trading—and be clear that skill is not the same as knowledge—are primarily emotional. If traders have not mastered discipline and emotional poise in the face of volatile market movements, their trading will be forever plagued by errors that will erode whatever edge they may have had.

129>>>Expect that your triumphs may be promptly followed by dramatic failures, that you will make mistakes in areas you thought you had mastered, and that any positive P&L may be quickly erased next week. Furthermore, do not expect that your learning curve will be described by a straight, upward-sloping line. It is far more common for students of any high-level skill to find that their progress comes in a series of jumps interspersed with long, flat plateaus. It is often difficult to maintain motivation during the flat periods, because you will feel that you are working very hard and not making any progress, and then progress comes, seemingly overnight, in a blinding flash. The reason for the sudden spurts of progress is the hard work done on the plateaus, but it can be difficult to keep up very hard work for seemingly no reward.

130>>>...trading success must be both financial and nonfinancial. Be clear that trading is about making money—whatever other motivations and satisfactions are tied into the process, at the end of the day there must be financial reward and it must be substantial.

131>>>Trading is difficult, time-consuming, and emotionally challenging, and nearly all traders find that their trading income is highly variable, so a higher average (annual) income is required relative to other professions. However, it will be very difficult to succeed if you are not absolutely fascinated by markets and the process of trading. If you don’t love it, you won’t be a very good trader, so there must be motivations for trading that go beyond financial gain.

132>>>Trading the Failure Test

Trading the Failure Test by Adam Grimes


133>>>WA System Trading

WA System Trading by Adam Grimes

<Chapter 12>
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